Outlook on Global Marijuana Legal Reform in 2025

Later this month, the cannabis industry in the United States is awaiting the Drug Enforcement Administration's administrative hearing on the reclassification of cannabis.

While some countries may expand, reduce, or maintain progress in cannabis reform achieved in 2024, attention will be focused on key developments in the past year. It is worth noting that there have been significant changes in cannabis policies in Europe.

Major developments and changes in global cannabis laws in 2024.

Germany: Germany has passed a two-stage quasi-legalization law. The first stage has been implemented in 2023, legalizing cannabis cultivation clubs, home cultivation and personal possession. The second stage is still in the early planning stage, which will introduce regulated cannabis sales through pilot projects. However, the biggest change is its expansion of the channels for obtaining medical cannabis. Since the promulgation of this law, the number of channels for obtaining medical cannabis in Germany has surged.

Poland: The Petitions Committee of the Polish Parliament has submitted a proposal to the Prime Minister, calling for the legalization of personal possession and home cultivation of marijuana. Although the proposal is not binding, it has the potential to pave the way for future legalization efforts, depending on the outcome of the May presidential elections in Poland.

Netherlands: After multiple delays, Dutch authorities are ready to authorize licensed growers to supply coffee shops participating in trials to meet consumer demand for regulated marijuana, marking an important step forward for its regulated marijuana market.

Switzerland: Expand its regulated marijuana sales pilot project to more jurisdictions under its jurisdiction.

Ukraine: Medical cannabis has been legalized for people who meet specific conditions, marking an important milestone in the country's health policy.

Thailand: Under the leadership of the new conservative government, Thailand chooses to effectively regulate marijuana rather than re-control it.

Australia: Australia held a vote to legalize marijuana by the end of 2024. The vote ended in a 24-13 loss, but it was still an important step for the country to move away from the war on drugs.

Italy: The leadership of the Italian conservative party has pushed for a ban on hemp products, prompting hemp industry advocates to call for an immediate review of the law's compliance with EU regulations. The EU Commission's review may determine the future of Italy's hemp industry.

Prospects for Global Marijuana Laws in 2025.

Despite the encouraging progress made in 2024, the conservative government opposing marijuana legalization may intensify resistance in 2025. Some countries will face setbacks, and there may even be a possibility of overturning their marijuana reforms.

Germany: Despite several cities, including Frankfurt, pushing for pilot projects on commercial cannabis, the Christian conservative party expected to gain control after the early elections in February has expressed its opposition to further expanding cannabis reform, especially in the second phase.

However, a public opinion poll showed that 59% of Germans support the legalization of marijuana, indicating that a complete reversal of the first stage is unlikely. Even if the Christian conservative party is in power, it will be difficult to re-criminalize marijuana without forming a coalition including pro-marijuana parties. Therefore, although the pilot project may face risks, it is unlikely that Germany's current system will be reversed.

Netherlands: Despite a shift to the right in the 2023 elections, the governing coalition in the Netherlands has confirmed that it will not halt the regulated cannabis coffee shop pilot project. The rollout of these pilot projects, which was delayed due to supply issues, is now slated for full-scale regulated sales in April of this year.

Thailand: After winning in the 2023 general elections, the Bhumjaithai Party initially advocated for placing marijuana back on the controlled substances list, but later softened its stance. The party's original plan to classify marijuana as illegal seems to no longer exist.

The new Thai government is currently focused on effective regulation of the cannabis market, which may include some form of regulated commercial sales. It is clear that the currently unregulated recreational market in Thailand may face significant restrictions, and the move towards moderate regulation suggests that a complete ban is unlikely. This action may also drive Thailand into the global medical marijuana trade.

Czech Republic: The initial goal of the Czech Republic was to achieve full legalization of commercial marijuana, but under pressure from the European Union's obligations to the United Nations treaty, the focus was shifted to 2024. Czech Republic is seeking a framework similar to Germany's, to regulate personal cultivation and possession limits. In addition, the Czech government is developing a regulatory system for low-THC hemp (content not exceeding 1%), including HHC, as part of its "psychoactive substances" system.

From April 2025, an additional 5,000 general practitioners in the Czech Republic will be allowed to prescribe medical cannabis, which is expected to significantly improve healthcare opportunities and increase the number of patients.

Ukraine: Although Ukraine's medical marijuana program has suffered delays, according to the latest official news, its first batch of medical marijuana products has been registered and approved and will be available in pharmacies soon. The oral cannabis drops, developed in Spain, are the first medical cannabis products in this registered series.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Health has finally released a list of about 20 diseases for which medical marijuana can be prescribed for treatment. At the same time, the Ukrainian Ministry of Health stated that if other diseases meet relevant medical conditions, they can be added to the list of treatable diseases, and its medical advisory committee may approve other diseases in the future. It is estimated that about six million patients in the country can benefit from the legalization of medical marijuana.

A macro outlook for the year 2025.

According to the global industry development trend, conservative governments around the world may challenge the expansion of marijuana legislation and policy reform in various regions by 2025. However, it seems unlikely that the existing marijuana system will be completely abolished.

As the demand for medical marijuana from patients greatly increases, countries are learning from each other's successes and failures. The development scale of both the medical marijuana and adult-use marijuana markets is gradually emerging, which will greatly promote changes in global industry regulation and policies to meet the needs of the times, highlighting a broader momentum towards legalization.

Recently, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights also emphasized the failure of the war on drugs and advocated for shifting towards a regulatory framework that prioritizes public health over punitive measures. These "regulatory options" aim to reduce the influence of black markets and drug trafficking groups, increase tax revenue, and fund social projects aimed at mitigating the harms of drugs.

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