Predicted Future of the Marijuana Industry in the United States in 2025

2024 will be a crucial year for the progress and challenges of the North American cannabis industry, laying the foundation for the transformation in 2025.

After a heated US presidential election, the outlook for the coming year remains uncertain with the new government's constant adjustments and changes.

Despite the relatively flat state-centered positive reforms in 2024, Ohio becomes the only new state to legalize recreational cannabis, and the landmark federal cannabis reform may be pushed ahead next year.

Besides the highly anticipated cannabis rescheduling and the SAFE Banking Act, 2025 will also be the most critical year for the hemp industry because the Agricultural Act will be enacted.

In Canada, the government proposes to modify the cannabis consumption tax, which could ultimately result in some tax relief in 2025.

Although industry leaders are optimistic about the next 12 months, the industry is also facing immense pressure, including price compression, operational shifts, and scattered regulatory frameworks.

What is the outlook for the cannabis industry in 2025? Let's hear from industry insiders.

David Kooi, CEO and Co-founder of Jointly.

"I doubt whether federal legalization and legislation can become a reality after the election. Our government has not listened to the will of the people for many years. Over 70% of Americans support the legalization of marijuana, and public support has exceeded 50% for over a decade, yet federal action has been nil. What are the reasons for this? Special interests, cultural wars, and political games. No party has obtained 60 votes to make changes. Congress would rather stop the other side from winning than do what the people really want."

Vince C. Ning, CEO and co-founder of Nabis Company.

After the 2024 presidential election, the national cannabis industry will need to see expectations become reality - the path of bipartisan cooperation is crucial for meaningful reform, but the situation is still unclear with the new administration taking over. While we have seen momentum build towards federal legalization of cannabis over the past year, it is unlikely to happen overnight, and we must be prepared for more political and regulatory obstacles.

Crystal Millican, Senior Vice President of Retail and Marketing at Cookies Company.

One of the biggest takeaways I learned from 2024 is the importance of focus. The industry continues to face many uncertainties and fluctuations, so whether it's focusing on specific market product lines or new consumer demands, it's important to continue laying the foundation for your company's successful career. For Cookies, we focus on the market with the greatest potential for growth in terms of market share while continuing to strive for product innovation, successful collaborations, and building strong partnerships, so that we can extend our reach into the markets we operate in. By doing this, we can devote more time, energy, and investment to R&D, which is the cornerstone of the Cookies company ecosystem.

President of Royal Queen Seeds, Shai Ramsahai.

This year's testing scandals and the high cost of regulated cannabis have highlighted the increasing demand for high-quality cannabis genes and seeds in the industry, as more and more global consumers seek to grow their own cannabis. This shift indicates a greater emphasis on the source and quality of cannabis, emphasizing the need for seeds to have elasticity, stability, and consistency in production results. As we enter 2025, it is clear that companies providing reliable genes will lead the industry, enabling consumers to become technically proficient growers and ensuring high standards in the global market.

TerrAscend's Executive Chairman Jason Wild.

"We remain optimistic about the possibility of reclassification in 2025, but given the uncertainty of the timetable, the cannabis industry must make multiple attempts. If the commercial terms are reviewed by the Supreme Court, we may face a panel of judges who support our argument. While we wait for the new Trump administration and Congress to act, this is a more predictable route, as the courts have always upheld state rights - which is the core issue of our case. If we win this lawsuit, the cannabis industry will eventually be treated equally with all other industries."

Soc Rosenfeld is the CEO and co-founder of Jane Technologies.

The mission of cannabis reform will continue until 2025, and I anticipate that the cannabis industry will continue to make progress in regulatory reform, ultimately achieving reclassification and bringing new growth opportunities and levels of legitimacy to the industry, businesses, and cannabis itself. This will be another year of sustained dedication and effort, as brands and retailers that prioritize data-driven consumer experiences will stand out in an increasingly competitive market. Besides growth, I believe we will see the industry become even more committed to addressing the lasting impacts of the war on drugs, paving the way for a more fair and open market.

Co-founder of Poseidon Investment Management, Morgan Paxhia.

With the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump and the "red wave" sweeping through Congress, the cannabis industry will see its most vibrant regulatory environment yet. This administration's actions indicate a stark departure from previous policies, opening unprecedented doors for legal marijuana.

Robert F. Kennedy is expected to serve as the Health and Human Services secretary, which is a good sign for the February marijuana reclassification hearing, with potential implementation in 2026. In addition, President Trump may instruct Attorney General Pam Bondi to draft a "Bondi Memo" to protect states' rights in developing marijuana regulatory policies. As the reclassification process unfolds, this memo may also help remove barriers for cannabis companies to access banking and investment opportunities.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may appoint someone more business-friendly to replace current Chairman Gary Gensler, which would benefit small issuers by reducing regulatory costs and complementing the goals of the Bondi Memo. This shift may trigger capital inflows into the cannabis industry, alleviating the funding shortage that has stifled industry growth in recent years.

As large operators seek strategic mergers and acquisitions, with organic market share growth to offset pricing pressure, industry consolidation will further intensify. Through indirect acquisitions, leading companies can deepen their vertical integration in core markets, improve operational efficiency, and take a dominant position in an increasingly competitive market. In this market environment, survival is success.

By early 2025, the cannabis industry's regulation may make significant progress. Combining intoxicating hemp into legal marijuana channels may distribute hemp drinks through alcohol networks, solving critical issues such as insufficient testing, harm to minors, and inconsistent tax rates. This shift is expected to increase legal marijuana revenue by $10 billion (a 30% increase over current levels) and improve consumer safety and market stability.

Würk CEO Deborah Saneman

In 2024, the recruitment numbers decreased by 21.9% compared to the previous year, as the industry shifts from rapid expansion to prioritizing operational efficiency and sustainable growth. With the push for legalization efforts (such as the failed Third Amendment in Florida and disappointing advertising opportunities in Ohio's market), the demand for strategic decision-making has never been stronger. This provides an excellent opportunity for our Würkforce data analysis tools and other products to play a crucial role, helping operators reduce costs and steer the competitive landscape with precision.

Curio Wellness co-founder and Chief Brand Officer Wendy Bronfein

Driven by increasing consumer acceptance and growing accessibility (with 70% of Americans supporting legalization and 79% living in areas with licensed dispensaries), the legal marijuana market in the United States is expected to reach over $50 billion by the end of the century. However, the industry still faces significant obstacles.”

"Regulatory frameworks are fragmented with each state having its own laws and standards, which will continue to bring logistical and operational challenges. Once the right regulatory framework is in place, we can avoid the current pressures of market fragmentation, price compression and consolidation, and create a new environment that fosters innovation, responsible corporate growth, and benefits consumers, businesses, and communities. In short, a smart federal regulatory framework is the key to unlocking the full potential of the marijuana market while ensuring consumer safety and industry sustainability."

Vice President of Sales Ryan Oquin for Hometown Hero.

Firstly, the market has shown that consumers are fond of hemp-derived products. Most importantly, the increasing availability of choices for consumers indicates that there is room for more diverse products. However, if current trends continue towards more restrictions and bans, 2025 could be the toughest year for the entire cannabis market (including hemp and marijuana). I expect to see more hemp and cannabis companies offer beverages with varying capacities and concentrations. The hemp industry may also face ongoing challenges from the cannabis industry, as well as resistance from states considering increasing medical or recreational marijuana programs. Products will continue to innovate and improve to meet the differentiated needs of the market.

Co-founder and Chief Risk Officer of Ripple, Missy Bradley.

"Our biggest concern is the increase of bad actors and fraudulent behavior by 2025, especially with regards to products derived from hemp. While we are satisfied with the future prospects of our regulated business in the state, we still have reason to worry if the federal government attempts to dismantle regulation of the hemp industry. Once bad actors realize that people will no longer be paying attention to the hemp industry, or even paying attention at all, the floodgates for easy money will be open. Without any enforcement measures, this industry could face difficulties. By 2025, I hope to see cannabis businesses operating like any other legitimate company in any industry, rather than just a company involved in cannabis."

CEO of Synergy Innovation, Shauntel Ludwig.

"I do not expect federal legalization of marijuana to be achieved by 2025, but I anticipate that we will see an acceleration in the process of marijuana reclassification, which will remain stable over the next few years. In the meantime, major tobacco and pharmaceutical companies, along with other key players, will prepare to seize the market once marijuana is legalized. The reclassification of marijuana also has practical benefits: all marijuana companies will receive capital and tax breaks, which will greatly stimulate the growth of the entire industry."